PML-N has clear edge in NA120 by election according to Gallup Pakistan survey


NA 120 Pre- Election Survey by Gallup Pakistan :

PML N and PTI maintain their party positions similar to 2013 General Election ; Overall PML N maintains a comfortable lead over PTI of 24% ; PTI ahead of PML N in Younger Male Educated segment of voters by 10% (Islamabad , Pakistan) : According to a Gallup Pakistan Pre-Election Survey conducted in NA 120 with a representative sample of N 1500 Voters , the voting trends from Election 2013 appear to be maintained in NA 120 and By Poll outcome on September 17 may not be very different from results of 2013 General Election on this seat. In the pre-election survey conducted by Gallup Pakistan , 53% of those surveyed , said that they intend to vote for PML N , followed by 29% who said PTI , 4% said PPP and 1% said Jamate-Islami. 4% mentioned other parties or Independents. 9% of the respondents either say they have not made up their mind or they will note vote or they refused to answer the question. Please tell after Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif’s disqualification, which political party would you vote for in the National Assembly by-election that will be held on September 17? Source: Survey Conducted by Gallup Pakistan, September 05 – September 10, 2017 Sample Size N 1500 Men and Women , Error Margin : +-2 to 3% at 95% Confidence Level The pre-election survey conducted between 5th to 10th September 2017 , shows that PML N has a comfortable lead over PTI of around 24% . It is worth noting that the lead between PML N and PTI emerging out of this survey is not very different from the General Election 2013 results for NA 120. In the General Election 2013 in NA 120 PML N had received approximately 61% vote where as PTI had received 34% votes. Thus the lead for PML N in 2013 was 26% . Gallup Pakistan’s analysis therefore suggests that the 53% 29% 4% 4% 1% 3% 3% 3% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% PML-N PTI PPP Other (including independents) JI Will not give vote Have not thought about it/not made a decision yet Refused to Answer 2 | P a g e party position in NA 120 has broadly not changed (for worse or for good) for both parties since 2013 election and broadly similar results may be expected. Voting Intentions among Various Demographic Groups Gender : PML N ahead of PTI among both Males and Females PML N is ahead among both Males and Females. A majority of Males (55%) and females (51%) in the survey said they would vote for PML N . The figure was 31% and 28% respectively for Females. Age : Younger Age bracket (18-30) appears to be slightly more supportive of PTI , however PML N is in lead in this demographic as well Among 18-30 Age group , 33% say they would vote for PTI and 50% say they would vote for PML N . In other words the margin between PML N and PTI among this age group is 17% as compared to 24% gap among voters of different ages. Education : 39% of BA or higher education Voters say that intend to vote for PTI ,47% say they intend to vote for PML N. The survey shows that as Education of respondents rise , the support for PML N declines sharply and support rises for PTI. Among Higher Education (defined as Bachelors or above) respondents surveyed in this Pre-Election Survey , the gap between PML N and PTI narrows to 8% (however PML N is still in lead). BA+ Education and 18-30 Age Group : The survey shows that among 18-30 Age Group surveyed who also have BA or above Education , PML N and PTI are equally popular . 44% of 18-30 Age Group, who also possessed BA or more education, said that they would vote for PTI , and a similar proportion said that they would vote for PML N. Interestingly among Male 18-30 Age Group and BA Plus Education segment of the voters , PTI is actually in a lead . 51% of Male ,18-30 Age Group who also possessed BA degree said they would vote for PTI and 41% said they would vote for PML N , leading to a 10% lead in favour of PTI within this demographic. In other words , if the by election was conducted among those voters who fell in both 18-30 age group and also had a BA degree , PTI and PML N may have equal or very similar chances of winning (44% each) .Similarly, If the by elections were held among those voters who were Male , fell in 18-30 age group and had BA or higher degree , PTI may win the elections by a around 10%. It should be noted that it is the overlap and cross cutting of Age , Education and Gender among voters which leads to turning of the tables in support of PTI in NA 120. Individually each of the 3 demographic groups i.e Age , Education and Gender show similar voting patterns as to the General voting trends in the constituency. For logical reasons , however ,the cross cutting and overlap i.e being Male , 18-30 age group and possessing a BA Degree is a relatively smaller demographic group of Voters and therefore overall PML N has a significant lead over PTI. 3 | P a g e After Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif’s disqualification, which political party would you vote for in the National Assembly by-election that will be held on September 17? Topic 1: Voting Intention among Different Demographic Groups for Top 4 Parties Please tell after Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif’s disqualification, which political party would you vote for in the National Assembly by-election that will be held on September 17? PML-N PTI PPP JI Row N % Row N % Row N % Row N % ALL 53% 29% 4% 1% Respondent’s gender Male 55% 31% 3% 2% Female 51% 28% 5% 1% Age of the Respondent Less than 30 years 50% 33% 4% 1% 30 - 50 years 53% 30% 4% 2% 50+ 60% 21% 3% 1% Education of the Respondent Low 64% 26% 4% 0% Medium 54% 27% 3% 2% Higher 47% 39% 4% 1% Likelihood to cast vote Very likely 66% 26% 2% 1% Somewhat likely 49% 34% 4% 2% Have not thought about it or have not decided 41% 27% 9% 2% Very likely that I will not cast my vote 16% 18% 2% 4 | P a g e Voting Intentions among 18-30 Age Group by Gender and Education Please tell after Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif’s disqualification, which political party would you vote for in the National Assembly by-election that will be held on September 17? PML-N PTI Margin Between PML N and PTI Male + Female Below Graduate 53% 29% 24% Graduate and Above 44% 44% 0% Male Below Graduate 55% 35% 20% Graduate and Above 41% 51% -10% Female Below Graduate 51% 24% 27% Graduate and Above 46% 36% 10% Base : 18-30 Age Group Respondents in NA 120 Survey Source: Survey Conducted by Gallup Pakistan, September 05 – September 10, 2017 Sample Size N 1500 Men and Women , Error Margin : +-2 to 3% at 95% Confidence Disclaimer : Gallup Pakistan would like to add that Pre-Election surveys are good enough to predict most likely winner and loser but cannot predict the margin of victory. Victory margin depends on who turns up to vote or stays at home. One of the largest barriers faced by pre-election voting intention polling is estimating how many people will turn out to vote. Even people who say they are certain to cast a ballot sometimes don't turn up. Similarly, voters can and do change their voting intentions prior to and on voting day, which can cause significant deviation in results. Gallup therefore advises caution and responsibility in use of Pre-election surveys.

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