American elections 2020-Joe Biden leading in 04 out of 07 crucial swing states
Three states are too close to call including Florida and North Carolina
The American presidential elections 2020 is now just three weeks away. In some states early voting is underway. According to the latest opinion polls and surveys, Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden is leading in 04 out 07 crucial swing states. He is leading with clear margin in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin.Trump won 05 states in 2016 elections with narrow margins including Michigan, Arizona, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. These swing states actually hand Trump victory against Hillary Clinton. Biden has widen the margin of lead in Michigan and Wisconsin in last two weeks.While in Arizona and Ohio states, he has a narrow lead over Trump with one percent or less point. In Florida and North Carolina both Trump and Biden are tied and can go either way. Some opinion polls are giving biden slight lead while others are giving trump the marginal advantage.
Still, while
national polls have generated a portrait of Biden holding a commanding lead,
it’s something of a mirage. In the swing states that matter, it is trench
warfare: Biden’s advantage, according to the Real Clear Politics polling
average, is within the margin of error in half of the eight states. And Trump
is a president whose support has been notoriously difficult for pollsters to
survey. Within each
of these swing states, the roadmap ahead for President Donald Trump and Joe
Biden is clear. The president must max out his performance with rural voters.
Biden needs a robust turnout in the big cities, particularly among African-American
voters. Trump must halt his erosion in the suburbs, and turn out
white working-class voters who didn’t vote in 2016. Biden has to increase
his current share among Latino voters and recapture some of the places that
flipped to Trump after twice voting for President Barack Obama.Together,
these eight states represent 127 electoral votes — and a departure from the
fairly static map of the pre-Trump era. Missing from this swing state list are
familiar presidential battlegrounds like Colorado, Ohio and Virginia. In their
stead are states like Arizona and Georgia — which haven’t voted for a
Democratic nominee since the 1990s — and Minnesota, which hasn’t voted for a
Republican in nearly a half-century.Consider
this fact: From July 2016 until Election Day in the three Rust Belt states that
Trump unexpectedly picked off — Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — 94
public polls were released. Trump led in just three of them. But he won the three states with narrow margins of few thousand votes. 
It becomes very difficult to predict the winner in a close race. Opinion polls could only provide the general feelings and trends. One county or small city can influence the final outcome of election results in a state. The big turn out of a certain group of population like African american community or Hispanic community can change the final result. The big chunk of independent voters swing towards a certain candidate can prove the opinion polls wrong. It can happen in a tight race. In 2020, Florida, North Carolina and Ohio are too close to call at this moment. The situation might change in next three weeks. These three states have 67 electoral votes which can change the result. If Biden win 04 states he is leading then he will need just one state of out of three tied states. It will be enough for Biden to win the presidency.
How swing states voted in last five elections
| 2016 | 2012 | 2008 | 2004 | 2000 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The 38 states in America has a history of solidly supporting either Republican Party or Democratic Party. There are exceptions when solidly Democratic or Republican state changed loyalty after voting for a certain party for decades. But exceptions are rear and few.
The 12 states are considered swing states which changes political loylty after every few years. Some of these states are Democratic leaning while others are Republican leaning. The presidential candidates focus on these swing states to win the presidency.
Every vote counts in these swing states. George Bush in 2000 won the presidency as he won the Florida with the majority of 532 votes. The Supreme Court ruled in favour of Bush and rejected the plea of Al Gore to recount the votes. this example shows that how important are the voters of these small but crucial states.
Khalid Bhatti
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