US2020-Joe Biden is leading in three crucial battle ground states
Biden is still leading in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan one week before the elections
According to new polls by the Elections
Research Center at the University of Wisconsin–Madison, Democratic candidate and former Vice President
Joe Biden has extended his leads over President Donald Trump in three key
battleground states — Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
Trump’s
support had held steady in each state over the past three months, closely
mirroring his job approval ratings, which have hovered in the low 40s. The difference
in the final days is that a larger share of undecided and potential minor party
voters has come to support Biden.
Biden has a massive lead among those who have already voted.
Although Trump is favored by those who are yet to vote, the margin is not large
enough to compensate for Biden’s advantage in the early vote.
The issue concerns of voters also work in favor of Biden
rather than Trump. More likely voters are now identifying the coronavirus
outbreak as the most important issue in the country. Despite Trump’s focus on
“law and order” in the wake of protests, fewer respondents now see that as the
top issue. The nomination of Amy Coney Barrett for an opening on the U.S.
Supreme Court has not raised the prominence of the court or abortion much.
These findings are from the fourth and final set of 2020
battleground surveys from the Elections Research Center at UW–Madison. The poll
in Wisconsin is conducted in collaboration with the Wisconsin State Journal.
Surveys were conducted between Oct. 13 and Oct. 21.
| MI | PA | WI | |
| Biden | 52% | 52% | 53% |
| Trump | 42% | 44% | 44% |
| Other/Not Sure | 5% | 3% | 3% |
| N | 681 | 669 | 647 |
Biden has substantial leads over Trump among “likely” voters. Likely voters are defined as registered voters who also report that they are “certain” to vote or have already voted. In contrast to prior ERC surveys this year, Biden has crossed the crucial 50% mark in all three states. Compared to the previous survey in September, Biden’s leads have grown from +6 to +10 in Michigan, from +4 to +8 in Pennsylvania, and from +4 to +9 in Wisconsin.
National exit polls in 2016 showed Clinton beating Trump
among Black voters 89% to 8% and among Hispanic voters 66% to 28%. The latest
ERC survey shows Biden’s support among non-white voters to be less dominant
than Clinton’s nationwide showing in 2016. He leads among Black voters 83% to
12%, among Hispanic voters 67% to 26%, and among other non-white groups 57% to
33%.
The 2016 exit polls showed that Trump won only narrowly among white college graduates but by a large margin among white voters without college degrees (66% to 29%). In the current survey the disparity in vote choices between more- and less-educated white voters has dampened somewhat compared to 2016.
| August | September | October | ||||
| Biden | Trump | Biden | Trump | Biden | Trump | |
| Men | 46% | 50% | 45% | 51% | 47% | 50% |
| Women | 57% | 38% | 55% | 40% | 58% | 38% |
| Democrat | 93% | 4% | 94% | 4% | 96% | 3% |
| Independent | 51% | 42% | 46% | 47% | 47% | 45% |
| Republican | 5% | 92% | 4% | 92% | 6% | 92% |
| Very liberal | 93% | 3% | 95% | 3% | 97% | 2% |
| Liberal | 96% | 2% | 91% | 4% | 95% | 2% |
| Moderate | 61% | 31% | 58% | 34% | 62% | 32% |
| Conservative | 10% | 86% | 9% | 89% | 11% | 87% |
| Very conservative | 6% | 91% | 3% | 94% | 6% | 92% |
| High school or less | 45% | 51% | 44% | 52% | 44% | 51% |
| Some college | 50% | 46% | 49% | 46% | 54% | 43% |
| College grad or more | 60% | 34% | 58% | 37% | 60% | 36% |
| Big city | 82% | 13% | 74% | 20% | 82% | 15% |
| Smaller city | 60% | 36% | 57% | 39% | 60% | 33% |
| Suburb | 51% | 44% | 50% | 44% | 53% | 44% |
| Small town | 45% | 50% | 46% | 49% | 47% | 49% |
| Rural area | 36% | 60% | 36% | 61% | 37% | 60% |
Biden’s advantage among white college grads is a bit smaller
than Clinton’s, but he more than compensates by running far better among
non-college white voters. These voters are more numerous than college educated
white voters in all three states and comprise an important part of the Biden
majority.
This is the fourth set of surveys in Michigan, Pennsylvania
and Wisconsin conducted during the 2020 election season by the ERC,
in partnership with the Wisconsin State Journal for all
polling done in Wisconsin.
Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin all voted for
Democratic presidential candidates going back to the 1980s but flipped to
the Republicans in 2016 to help President Donald Trump win the
Electoral College.
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