Indian COVID-19 surge- death toll might reach to one million by August
India's COVID-19 cases are 20 times more than officially declared says IHME
According to
the latest projection of American global health research Center Institute for
Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington, the death
toll from the COVID-19 pandemic in India will be 959,561(nearly one
million) by August 1, 2021. With an estimated global toll of 5,050,464
(5.05 million), India would account for nearly a fifth of the total
deaths. Its projections on COVID-19 are considered to be based on robust
models.
The pandemic
already killed more than 3 million (3,104,743) to be exact as of April 26,
according to data from the world Health Organization; India accounted for
195,123 of them. IHME projected India’s daily death toll at 13,050 by May
15 — more than double the current 6,352 deaths (April 27).
There were
many more COVID-19 cases in India than Government of India has declared,
IHME professor Christopher JL Murray, said in a recorded analysis:
This means
that the number of cases that are being detected needs to be multiplied by 20
or more to get the number of infections that are occurring in India. The number
of infections right now is extraordinarily large. There are more infections
happening in India than what occurred globally two weeks ago. That way, India
would already have had 6 million infections.
Our latest
projections show that the number of infections driven by the surge in India
(and perhaps also driven by the surges in Bangladesh and Pakistan) will be
reaching 15 million a day globally.”
Murray argues that infection in India is so
high that “COVID-19 may run out of people to infect pretty soon”. This means
after mid-May transmission in India would start declining.
Rukhsana Manzoor Deputy Editor
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