Pakistan-US relation- Bells are not ringing
Pak-US transactional relationship has never transformed into strategic relationship
Post 9/11 and the changed security situation
in the world, the US has for the past 20 years viewed Pakistan from the prism
of Afghanistan and the fight against terrorism and Taliban. Pakistan’s
geostrategic importance as well as the links between key Afghan players and
Pakistan’s security establishment have ensured that the US has always engaged
with us for various purposes, ranging from setting up bases, using our sea and
land routes to Afghanistan, utilizing Pakistani airspace for aerial campaigns
and logistical purposes to coordinating with Pakistani intelligence agencies
for capturing and eliminating senior Taliban and Al Qaeda leadership.
In
exchange for our support for its Afghanistan campaign Pakistan has been
provided with billions of dollars of economic and military aid, as well as
preferential treatment such as advantageous free trade agreements and being
designated a major Non- NATO ally of the United States. All through this
however the nature of this relationship has been transactional for the most
part rather than strategic.
This transactional relationship has never blossomed into a strategic relationship, owing to US placing greater importance on ties with India as well as due to the distrust in US political and intelligence circles about Pakistan’s true intentions in Afghanistan, where it has been accused by US officials of secretly supporting the Taliban.
Firstly, the new Biden administration seems least interested in opening deep diplomatic channels with Pakistan as can be witnessed from the lack of contact between Prime Minister Imran Khan and US president Joe Biden for the past seven months since the latter has been in charge. Contacts between senior civil and military officials have occurred with most recent meeting of national security advisers of both countries in Geneva but so far things have not moved to head of state level contact.
This
in no part is due to lack of effort from the Pakistani side which has been requesting
constantly for a telephonic conversation to discuss the Afghan situation at
such a level but to no avail. A further sign of the Biden administration’s
reluctance in engaging deeply in Pakistan can be seen from its acceptance of
India’s proposal to not include Pakistan in the recently held UNSC security
meeting on Afghanistan’s situation.
Pakistan’s
government and security establishment have always highlighted the importance of
Pakistan towards any resolution of the security situation in Afghanistan, but
it seems the Biden administration does not believe this to be the case anymore and
felt no need to hear the view point being espoused by Pakistan, focusing
instead on the view point of the Indian and Afghan government. A similar
situation was also witnessed earlier when a security conference being arranged
by Pakistan had to be indefinitely postponed as the Afghan government refused
to take part in it, probably with the tacit approval of the US government.
Another key issue which recently came up was about Pakistan giving airbases to US forces for providing aerial, intelligence and reconnaissance support to Afghan forces. A lot of applause was raised in the media about Prime Minister Imran Khan saying “Absolutely Not” to US proposal of reviving old agreements for utilization of Pakistani Air bases.
All these events point towards the Biden
administration not willing to engage with Pakistan any more than it has to and
to keep the nature of the relationship transactional rather than strategic, focused
through the prism of Afghanistan as it has done for the past two decades.
The
US seems willing to pay for bases but not to give Pakistan a major stake in the
Afghan peace process, instead preferring its allies inside Afghanistan and
India to be more actively involved. However despite this unwillingness to
engage with Pakistan, the US so far seems careful not to take ties as low as in
the 1990’s when Pakistan was sanctioned and is most likely to continue a
certain level of engagement to achieve its objectives in Afghanistan.
It is
however quite likely that the US may not be as interested as it used to be in
showering us with financial largesse as it did post 9/11 and instead will
likely keep putting pressure on Pakistan through FATF and at the same time
offer some incentives to us to ensure proper “behavior”, as per its carrot and
stick policy.
As the geostrategic significance of Pakistan for US after its troops withdrawal continues to vane, a bumpy road lies ahead in which Pakistan will have to carefully wade through the murky waters so as not to antagonize the US too much while ensuring that its strategic interests in Afghanistan and economic interests at home are not compromised.
One
can only hope that our leadership has the capacity and more so the capability to
achieve this balance. The United States continues to be an important economic
and geostrategic partner of Pakistan and it is in our best interests to keep
this relationship intact if we are to meet our economic, diplomatic and strategic
objectives.
Muhammad Ragheeb
ragheeb40@gmail.com
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